The Redsox and other addictions

January 6, 2010

Kotchman for Hall

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 11:58 pm

The Globe is reporting that Kotchman could be going to the Mariners for Bill Hall with cash and parts in motion.

I like Bill Hall, and any roto player would noting his monster (537 .270 .345 .553 35 hr) season for the Brewers in 2006. He’s cooled glacially to (120 .200 .244 .333) with the Mariners in the second half of last year.

What’s interesting here is moving Kotchman, who was to be the 1B backup. I’d assume he’s redundant, which implies (to me anyway) that the Sox might be keeping Mikey Lowell backing up 1B/DH. Here’s hoping.

Jacoby to LF and other cost limiting moves

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 11:47 pm

Dan Roche twittered that Tito has asked Jacoby to move to LF and will put Cameron in CF, citing Cameron’s better play and Jacoby’s speed off the mark as the reason. Big deal you might say. But what’s interesting to me is how it puts a cost parameter to the player in question – we can replace a major factor of you with a value signing at less $$$ and less years. This would not be lost on Jacoby who I believe is a Boras client.

What’s interesting to me is that this might be seen as the second significant price equality statement introduced to the Sox roster this year. By signing Lackey at $16.5M per, no small change but still considered a bargain, and making repeated statements that he has a performance similarity to Beckett, the Sox are creating another price comparison in their team for Beckett.

In short, if Jacoby and Josh want to be paid more than Cameron / Lackey (at least per year) they need to outperform them. If both respond then the Sox get 4 top shelf producers at manageable cost.

As mentioned before, nowhere will this effect be felt more than against the Angels, who not only lost their Ace but will now watch him compete with 2 other aces in the same team. And this can only be worsened by the Mariners reloading on defence with a park that eats offense.

January 5, 2010

Sox apparently sign Beltre

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 12:46 pm

The Globe is reporting that the Sox have come to terms with Beltre for a 1y/M$9 for 2010 and a player option of M$5 for 2011 with a M$1 buyout.

Fantastic result, picking up a player who appears to want to raise his value with a strong year in the hope of a longer term deal from us or someone else in 2011. Kudos to Theo and tips to Tim Savage who has consistently argued this point with me for at least a month 🙂

Looking at the platoons now:
RHP: Ortiz (386 .250 .346 .481 .828) Lowell (302 .285 .324 .460 .784) Beltre (328 .253 .271 .345 .616)
LHP: Ortiz (165 .212 .298 .418 .716) Lowell (143 .301 .363 .503 .867) Beltre (121 .298 .384 .471 .855)
Assuming Beltre plays fulltime, he’s good for about 5th vs LHP and 8th vs RHP. Lowell and Papi then have complementary splits (bite my tongue).

What I don’t understand is how heavily biased the Sox are becoming against LHP – vs LHP they may bat to 8, vs RHP they bat to 6? And this is compounded by most of our power prospects in the minors flaring out, and it seems so many of our high order picks going on 5 tools players (inferring less raw power).

Theo has never been accused of not having a plan. I’m assuming he’s noticed the FA class for the 2011 and 2012 seasons includes some LH power 🙂

December 29, 2009

Bay signs with mets pending Physical

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 11:34 pm

The Globe is reporting that Bay has signed with the mets, pending a physical, for 4y/M$65, which indicates to me he should have taken the Sox offer of 4y/M$60 when it was on the table and overplayed his hand. Too bad 😦

Chapman – Less(no?) tax if he signs in 2009

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 11:30 pm

ESPN Insider is saying that should Chapman sign before the end of the month his signing bonus will be out of reach of the US Tax Man. If he plays no baseball in the year he receives his bonus he gets taxed in his current nationality which is Andorran – and tax free.

December 23, 2009

Worried about the offense – Who Me?

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 3:13 am

So Rob McReedy said to me today, Bob are you worried about the moves so far?

Well, if someone said we would get pithing I’d say we get pitching every year. That we got the best pitcher available in Lackey is awesome, and that our largest rival in the West would need to acquire 2 said Ace pitchers to compensate – that’s huge.

As for hitting, well we’ve full season upgrades at ShortStop and Catcher, so that’s a plus. We’ve unfortunately lost a 5 hole right hand presence in Jason Bay, howver I’m glad that they didn’t go to 5 years. Cameron isn’t Bay, we see the stats drop from (.267, .384, .537, 36hrs and 4warp) to (.250, .342, .452, 24hrs, 4.1warp). Of course Cameron’s warp may drop on a better quality team, but that’s not to say there’s direct evidence given offense and defence that it’s a terrible downgrade.

Standing back from the immediate detail, how do I feel about us not blowing a bomb on hitting?

Well we did, just not in traditional power positions. We’re strong up the middle with VMart, Skuturo, Pedroia and Ellsbury in center making us as productive as anyone. Youklis and Drew are also offensive pluses, and we’ve just argued to our peril that Cameron isn’t a complete downgrade. So we’re down to 3B and DH.

Kotchman is pretty effective as league average, and I’m up on Mikey recovering from his hand injury in a contract year.

So we’re on Papi, and I just don’t want to hope he can’t correct the inconsistency that plagued him last year. Word seems he’s on a Sox designated program this offseason, so the best indicator of success for that work is how light he comes in when he reports.

At the highest level, I’m kind of glad there were no new large scale offense commitments this year because the FA pool was so shallow. Holliday, Bay and a wide gap to the rest doesn’t inspire me. Of course the upside to this is we’re hopefully resourced when the next offensive powers hit Free Agency, and the likes of Pujols, Gonzalez et al would be much more exciting.

December 22, 2009

Justin Duchscherer

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 12:56 am

Rotoworld is reporting that Justin Duchscherer is chosing on a destination this week, with the Sox and Yanks apparently in the mix.

I’m not sure pressure environments like Boston and New York are a good fit for Justin who spend some of last year off with injuries, but his fundemental numbers are good (141.2ip 2.54era 1.00WHIP ~3:1 kk:bb ratio). I’d also be inclined to think he’ll cost less than Ben Sheets who looks similar (198.1ip 3.09era 1.15WHIP ~3.1:1 kk:bb ratio).

I have no reasonable justification for saying this, but I expect the Yankees need the pitching more and Sheets is more the personality of player they’d acquire.

December 21, 2009

News on Mike

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 12:32 am

So, reports from the AP are Iron Mike will be having surgery on a tendon in his thumb and expects only a 2 month rehab.

Mike is a class act and to a degree I’m glad he’s staying if he won’t be able to produce a full season to boost his value. Playing a full season in the Texas sun would be fabulous for his power numbers, but not if he’s injured.

Of course there is the logic of why you’d want to trade a guy going into a contract year who hit [.290, .337, .474] for you last year, and if there really is anyone better for the price. He had an .860ops vLHP good fr 4th on the team, yet we were apparently wanting to shift him for a AAA catcher with a history of wrist injuries while throwing M$9 into the mix.

The Sox must know something I don’t. And something the Phillies had no clue about when they offered Mike an extra year when he decided to stay in Boston.

In any case, having surgery opens Mike for DL time, and I believe also enables an insurance claim by the Sox, so if I wanted to be cynical I could say we may have just opened a roster spot. The chances of us opening with Youklis:3B Kotchman:1B seems higher now.

December 20, 2009

Checking what’s out there for 1B and 3B

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 1:06 am

In the continued vain hope that there’s a budget move to the corner infield instead of blowing a wad on Beltre, we introduce the ESPN free agent trackers for 1B and 3B.

Some noteables:
The best 1B out there might be Adam Laroche(30)[.325, .401, .557 in 57ab with Atlanta] but I don’t think he’s going to get the M$30/3yrs he seems to want. Noteables are Thome(39)[.249, .372, .493 with Chicago] and Blalock(29)[.234, .277, .459 with Texas].

The best 3B out there might be Beltre(31) but I also don’t see him getting the dollars we wants given his [.265, .304, .379 with Seattle] from last year. A noteable is Juan Uribe(31)[.289, .329, .495 with the Giants], and the suggestion in the Globe that the Sox may wait for Tejada(36)[.313, .340, .455 with Houston].

December 19, 2009

Nick Johnson to Yanks

Filed under: Uncategorized — drbob00 @ 1:10 am

The AP is reporting Nick Johnson is signing with the Yanks which means they don’t need to spot Damon the last few years of the 3 year contract he’s asking for.

I guess I get to second guess myself the rest of the year 🙂

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